Disclosure of aggregate imbalance positions

In compliance with paragraph 3.4(5) of Annex I to Regulation No 715/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 July 2009, the market area manager NetConnect Germany GmbH & Co. KG (NCG) discloses for each gas day the aggregate start-of-day imbalance position of all balancing groups registered in its market area, plus its forecast of the aggregate end-of-day imbalance position of all balancing groups registered in its market area.

Given that a daily energy balancing regime applies and all balancing groups are thus balanced at the end of each gas day, the start-of-day imbalance position is always shown as “zero”. The end-of-day imbalance position for each gas day (the day “D”) is forecast as follows:

The relevant quantity is derived on the basis of the BKSALDNACH data series available for the preceding days, with a ratio being calculated between the BKSALDNACH data series as submitted for the days D-7 and D-9 and this ratio then being applied to the BKSALDNACH data series as submitted for the gas day D-2 on the day D-1. The following example shows how the formula used to forecast the end-of-day imbalance position for each gas day is applied in practice:

Date displayed
Gasday
Aggregate imbalance position
19 May 20..
17 May 20..
20,000 MWh < - D-2
  12 May 20..
15,000 MWh < - D-7
  10 May 20..
10,000 MWh < - D-9

 (D-1/D-9) x D-2 = (15,000 MWh/ 10,000MWh) x 20,000 MWh = 30,000 MWh

All numbers are rounded to thousands.

The result for the above example: a forecast of 30,000 MWh is published for the end-of-day imbalance position for the gas day 19 May 20..

The above approach allows us to take account of changes occurring over the course of several days and thus to develop a more accurate forecast.

Please note that NCG cannot accept any liability for the accuracy of its daily end-of-day imbalance position forecasts.

 

 

Contact

Market
T + 49 (0) 2102 59796 780
F + 49 (0) 2102 59796 59
E market@net-connect-germany.com

Aggregate imbalance positions

Gas Day 19/05/2019
Aggregated state of balance at the beginning of the gas day 0 MWh
Prognosticated aggregated state of balance at the end of the gas day 544,000 MWh